LOCALadk Magazine

Summer 2019 LOCALadk Magazine 19 LOCALadk Widespread sediment and silt deposition in the Town of Keene from Hurricane Irene ample, India is seeing intense periods of drought, resulting in water shortages for crop production and human and animal consumption, and warmer temperatures in the western U.S. are creating ideal conditions for all-consuming wildfires. 11 Degrees and 5 Inches in the Next Century Last year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released a report detailing how "Global warming is likely to reach 1.5°C (2.7°F) between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase at the current rate." In New York State, we have al- ready seen a 2°F increase over the last 20 years. If emissions are not reduced, the state is projected to see an 11°F increase by the end of this centur y. The state has also experienced more extreme precipitation events over the last 20 years compared to the rest of the centur y, with the highest lev- els occurring in the last five years. According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration's climate summar y for New York, in the coming centur y we can anticipate warmer annual temperatures, more sea level rise (1 to 4 feet), and more rain that will likely result in increased springtime flood- ing. These climatic changes will be worsened if emissions continue to rise at a rapid rate. What This Means for the Adirondacks Here in the Adirondacks, we have also experienced climate change through extreme weather events like Hurricane Irene in 2011. The storm had devastating effects on the nat- ural landscape and human infrastructure, particularly in the towns of Keene and Jay. Trees and earth were uprooted; the raging force of the Ausable River cut through homes, bridg- es, and roads; families were displaced; and expensive invest- ments in infrastructure and recover y were required. For the Adirondacks, snow, ice, and cold temperatures dic- tate our landscape and environment. However, according to Jerr y Jenkins' Climate Change in the Adirondacks, and cur- rent climate trajectories, the Park's temperatures could re- semble those of the Blue Ridge Mountains of North Carolina by 2100. Ice and snow will be replaced by rain and intense storms. The Park's biological diversity is dependent on its location at a transitional zone between the northern bore- al spruce-fir forests of Canada and the cool temperate de- ciduous forests of the Appalachian Mountains. This means that for each of these biomes, the flora and fauna are at their climatic limits—held in a delicate balance, threatened by changing climate. The flora and fauna of boreal habitats are particularly sensitive because they thrive in colder weather, and they will become increasingly vulnerable to die-off and displacement by other species. The diverse boreal habitats in the Adirondacks, ranging from alpine tundra to bogs and conifer swamps, support important flora and fauna—a number of which are already seeing dwindling populations. Shrinking spruce-fir forests found in the high mountains will impact the Adirondack breeding grounds of the migrator y Bicknell's Thrush. Al- pine tundra vegetation— one the Park's rarest communities, composed of short vegetation (excluding trees) like mosses, shrubs, and sedges—are at risk. These plant communities rely on cold, icy conditions to prevent trees from replacing them; warming temperatures could choke them out. We are already seeing a rise and change in the tick popula- tion in the Adirondacks due to climate change. Cold winters, among other factors, act as a natural control to their popu- lation, but our warming winters are failing to control ticks and tickborne diseases. Dr. Lee Ann Sporn at Paul Smith's Col- lege has shown that the North Countr y experiences more than double the amount of Lyme dis- ease cases than the rest of the state —with around 450 docu- mented cases in 2017. We need cold winters. The Adirondacks contain over 2,800 lakes and ponds and 1,500 miles of rivers, and they too will see the impacts of climate change. Increased storm surges will mean more stormwater run- off that carries nutrients into water bodies. When coupled with warming temperatures, the runoff supports increased algal blooms like those seen in Lake George. In addition, warmer temperatures will continue to inhibit the iconic brook trout's ability to reproduce as streams and other wa- tercourses fail to remain cool. Lake trout will struggle to find hospitable habitat as cold-water refuges found in the bot- tom layers of deep lakes slowly vanish in the Adirondacks. Climate change will not only have significant impacts on the natural world, but also our own communities and cul- ture. The Adirondack Park is a world-renowned winter va- cation and recreation destination because it hosts some of the greatest terrain and winter conditions for a variety of cold-weather sports. Whiteface's downhill skiing, Old Forge's snowmobiling, the High Peaks' winter hiking, Lake Champlain's ice fishing, and so on; they drive and sustain the Park's winter economy.

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